PREDICTION FOR TENANG

I think I am ready to make my prediction for Tenang and I think I have got this right after evaluating reports, strategies and actions of both the parties. The BN candidate is tainted with almost zero charisma and this is very bad news for BN as they are faced with a very charismatic and liked leader from PAS, yet the simple down to earth Cikgu Mala.

My prediction is Cikgu Mala Wins the Tenang By-election with a small majority of less than 500.

It is very close and this one was one that was for BN to loose. And they mismanaged it and couldn't put on a good show. Their mistakes or misadventures are as follows

1. Candidate: A lack-lustre candidate without personality who looks more like a relative of an UMNO warlord rather than a hard working man of the street working for the man on the street. To make things worse, he has a tainted past with demerits, what was UMNO thinking about when they selected him??

2. Disorganized: The is little coordination by the election director, he not only failed to give a direction to the election campaign but couldn't get the support from Putrajaya. Worse still the un-necessary announcements for Royal Commission with limited scope only to be reversed later and the Home Ministry's announcement about internet regulation under the printing presses act. Seems like it is still free for all in BN, not much has changed in this respect if compared to Badawi's regime.

3. The Porn Angle: It would have been better to keep Soi Lek on a low profile but he and his son went on a rampage with the Islamic angle forgetting that they live in terribly thin glass houses (Morality is a big? but they seem to take it very lightly) and assuming that the Muslim vote is theirs for keeps. This taken for granted attitude and uncoordinated attack on the simple Cikgu Mala may become the single largest factor for BN's loss in this election.

4. Finally, they couldn't resist the lure of free goodies to the electorate, some will bite the bait while others (the clever ones) will eat the bait and still not get hooked.

If BN loses this one, they have only themselves to blame and nobody else. Their only savior is the FELDA votes, hopefully for them at least that comes through!!!!

DONATION FOR TENANG BY ELECTION

I have just donated to the PAS Tenang By election fund, it was only a small amount but my rationale for doing so was to level the playing field somewhat. BN has massive resources while PAS has very little, hence my action

For those that like to follow my example, here are the details

The bank account for the Tenang by-election is as follows:

Parti Islam SeMalaysia

Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd

Account number: 140 2301 0000885

Branch: Jalan Raja Laut, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

BEST OF LUCK!!!!

A GREAT CANDIDATE FOR TENANG....................

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Is this Taib's last inspiration opportunity?

It was reported in the Star today as follows

KUCHING: Sarawak Chief Minister Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud returned Wednesday from his pilgrimage to Mecca and said he has received the inspiration on when to call the next state elections.

"I have the inspiration but I won't tell you (the date)," he told reporters at the Hornbill Skyways Hangar here. - Unquote

Sarawak elections this time around will be difficult to predict as there are too many variables and uncertainties. One thing is for sure, Taib and BN will not have it so easy this time around, he probably will not get as many seats but will the tide of change be strong enough to take the state away from his clutches and decades of dominance. Only time will tell.

Another thing for sure is that PR will only get the state if the tide goes against Taib although one would naturally expect that PR will gain more seats through DAP in urban areas while PKR and PAS are relatively weak in urban areas but in the rural areas is another story. DAP, PKR and PAS are all weak in rural areas and you ain't winning Sarawak without the support of the rural folk. What PR needs is a local entity to anchor itself in Sarawak but will the PR warlords allow this to happen as this will erode their power and influence over Sarawak. I think it is a little too late for that but one never knows as if the voice of dissent is so powerful that the spillover in support translated into seats will be more inclined to go to a local indigenous party and to PR if it is supported by local indigenous parties. PR by itself?; hmmm....don't see an opportunity there.

But then again, who am I to say, I am just the rakyat, simple, plain and ordinary rakyat and that too from the Peninsula. Maybe the Hornbill will bring change and maybe not.

Lets see.

Are we there yet?

I started blogging some years ago but after the 2008 political paradigm shift where we saw Malaysians maturing politically and seeing through the smoke screen and wanting to mark their stamp on their own futures rather than place it in the hands of a few; I stopped blogging as I thought that we were on our way to greater political freedom and expression which will improve the lives of millions in Malaysia. I was wrong…..way wrong…it now seems that we have just started!

I can’t even remember the name of my blog but my acronym MyBlog has remained although it had not much to do with the blog name as is the case for this blog; but one thing that I can remember is how reckless I was at that time thinking that I could do and write as I please which is a misled notion directed by my inner passion probably fueled by the emotional state of the people prior to 2008. Where has this passion powered by the emotional under currents gone? But that is a question that we will try to address in the next paragraph. I was bloody reckless with no regard to any laws, morality etc etc and only sensation was what I wanted, and that to me was a confirmation that my message of frustration with the country’s situation at that time was making its way across the political divide loud and clear; and more importantly in the name of change and teaching the ruling party a lesson that we can react. While the desired end result may have been right but the manner in which it was conveyed was definitely wrong, period. This time around, I intend to make this change and transcend into a more responsible and matured blogger, hopefully I will.

So what has changed now? Nothing much really, we have 4 or now 3 additional opposition ruled states besides Kelantan but life is pretty much the same, as in Malaysia, the Federal government makes the most impact on the lives of its people. Oh yes, one thing has changed, the magic of 2008, it has weaned aided by the poor organization of the opposition parties, the big three, DAP, PAS and yes the ever controversial PKR. Pakatan Rakyat is still a dream, a dream that is being monopolized by the big three. Question; why aren’t efforts being made to include other regional smaller parties as allies, will this not strengthen PR. My father told me that a bunch of bamboos tied together are stronger than one on its own. So why?; tell me why, maybe we don’t want to share our seats (MP & ADUN), maybe we want to only keep it amongst ourselves, maybe we have also become greedy for power which comes with the number of seats one holds. So power will bring us (the PR three) the influence, spoils and riches, be it in immaterial, material or financial terms, is this what it is all about.

Wake up PR, if you ever dream of being a government, be inclusive, transparent; think of the big picture or otherwise you might even lose what you have. As for me, it will take too much effort and I don’t know if I can gather that much steam to drive a new engine in this highly charged political environment, so I will stick to PR but how many will?? That is the question.

BN hasn’t changed much, they have done nothing really substantial to improve their support but they don’t really have to do much as PR is doing enough to push the people to BN. PR – The PRU13 is yours to give away, make amends and it might still work, right now I think a target of retaining your current position is realistic, Putrajaya is a long way ahead and not accessible at the current state of affairs. Don’t do anything and you will lose it all except Kelantan and Penang. Make amends and maybe in a couple of years the pressure will build up again, and you have a chance like 2008. Otherwise all fingers point to the fact that there is something rotten in the state of Denmark (read PR). That’s my take!!